最优组合预测模型在成都私家车数量预测中的应用

Applications of optimal combination forecasting model qualitative forecast of private cars in Chengdu

建立一个以预测误差平方和达到最小为准则的正权重组合预测模型。以成都私家车数量预测为例,分别采用灰色预测模型、指数模型、一次函数模型、二次函数模型、三次函数模型做单项预测。通过组合预测,得到更高精度的预测结果。以最优组合预测模型预测成都市在2009年的私家车数量,并与实际值进行比较,对比分析计算误差。同时也运用组合预测法对2010年成都私家车数量进行了预测。

In this paper,a prediction error sum of squares criterion was to achieve a minimum weight combination forecasting model.The quantity of private cars in Chengdu,for example,was respectively predicted by the gray forecasting model,exponential model,a function model,a quadratic function model,three single function model.The number of private cars by 2009 were forecasted in Chengdu,which compared with the actual value.The number of private cares were also forecasted by the combination forecasting model by 2010.