中国碳排放因素分解:基于LMDI分解技术

Decomposition of China's Carbon Emissions:Based on LMDI Method

碳排放是当前全球关注的热点问题,如何评估各种因素在碳排放中的贡献程度对于抓住其中的关键因素,促进碳减排具有重要意义。本文构建了一个基于经济总量、经济结构、能源利用效率、能源消费结构、碳排放系数的碳排放恒等式,运用LMDI分解技术,对中国1995-2007年的碳排放从产业层面和地区层面进行了分解。结果表明:经济规模总量的扩张是中国碳排放继续高速增长的最主要因素,能源利用效率的提高则是抑制碳排放增长最主要的因素,产业结构或者地区结构的变化、传统能源结构的变化对碳排放影响有限,潜力还没有发挥出来。我国碳减排需要进一步的努力:短时间内,在产业内部推进产业内升级,特别是工艺创新和工艺升级等是提高能源利用效率的有效途径;从长远来看,产业结构调整和产业结构升级则是降低二氧化碳排放的可行选择;通过大力发展可再生能源和新能源来优化能源结构才有可能真正达到减排的目的。

Carbon emission is a hot issue nowadays.How to evaluate various factors＇ contribution to carbon emission is important in finding some key factors to reduce carbon emission.The paper constructs a carbon emission identity,based on economic gross,economic structure,energy efficiency,energy consumption structure,emissions parameters,and uses LMDI method to decompose China＇s carbon emissions in 1995-2007 at industrial and regional levels. The results show that expansion of economic scale is the most important factor for the continuous carbon emissions growth and the improvement of energy efficiency is the most important to inhibit carbon emissions＇ growth.The changes of industrial structure,regional structure and fossil energy structure have limited impact on carbon emissions and their potentials have not been realized.Finally,the paper proposes some advice for the next step.