基于STIRPAT模型的中国碳排放峰值预测研究

Forecast of China's carbon emissions based on STIRPAT model

利用STIRPAT模型对未来中国碳排放峰值进行相关预测。首先,通过对中国30个省市的面板数据分析展示目前我国各地碳排放的基本情况;其次,对中国1980-2008年的时间序列数据进行回归,从中得出我国总体碳排放趋势;再次,在先前回归的基础上对今后我国碳排放的峰值出现时间进行预测。研究发现:技术对峰值的影响较为重要。若经济社会发展速度较高,而碳排放强度下降速度相对较低,则不能在2050年内出现峰值。同样,若碳强度降低速度相比经济社会发展速度为快,则会推动排放提早达到峰值。按照目前发展趋势,若经济社会发展的同时保持碳排放强度合理下降,中国的峰值到达时间应为2020-2045年之间。因此,保持碳排放强度的不断下降对我国尽快出现碳排放峰值至关重要,加大清洁能源使用,减少传统能源消耗应是今后的重点工作任务。

Forecast research on China＇s carbon emissions is little.Scholars have largely relied on the Environmental Kuznets Curve（EKC curve） to estimate it.The paper uses STIRPAT model to estimate China＇s carbon emissions in future.First,panel data analysis on China＇s 30 provinces and cities are used to show China＇s basic conditions.Secondly,time series regression on China＇s 1980-2008 data is used to draw the trend.Thirdly,forecast of the peak time is given.We find that the impact of technology on the peak is important.If economy grows too fast,while the rate of decline in carbon intensity is relatively low,the peak will not be realized before 2050.Similarly,if the rate of carbon intensity reduction is faster than economic growth,the peak will be realized before 2050.According to the current trends,China＇s peak will arrive between 2020 and 2045.Therefore,maintaining the declining carbon intensity of carbon emissions is essential to realize the peak as soon as possible.Using more clean energy and reducing traditional energy consumption should be the focus of future tasks.