Simulating Potential Distribution of Tamarix chinensis in Yellow River Delta by Generalized Additive Models

There are typical ecosystems of littoral wetlands in the Yellow River Delta.In order to study the relationships between Tamarix chinensis and environmental variables and to predict T.chinensis potential distribution in the Yellow River Delta,641 vegetation samples and 964 soil samples were collected in the area in October of 2004,2005,2006 and 2007.The contents of soil organic matter,total phosphorus,salt,and soluble potassium were determined.Then,the analyzed data were interpolated into spatial raster data by Kriging interpolation method.Meanwhile,the digital elevation model,soil type map and landform unit map of the Yellow River Delta were also collected.Generalized Additive Models(GAMs) were employed to build species-environment model and then simulate the potential distribution of T.chinensis.The results indicated that the distribution of T.chinensis was mainly limited by soil salt content,total soil phosphorus content,soluble potassium content,soil type,landform unit,and elevation.The distribution probability of T.chinensis was produced with a lookup table generated by Grasp Module(based on GAMs) in software ArcView GIS 3.2.The AUC(Area Under Curve) value of validation and cross-validation of ROC(Receive Operating Characteristic) were both higher than 0.8,which suggested that the established model had a high precision for predicting species distribution.