艾比湖流域年径流变化特征分析

Trends in Runoff Variations of the Ebinur Lake Basin during the Last 48 Years

以艾比湖流域的博尔塔拉河(博河)和精河为例,基于1961-2008年的径流序列,运用累计距平法、小波分析法和滑动t检验等方法,分析了艾比湖流域年径流变化的趋势特征、周期特征和突变特征,揭示了流域径流的变化规律,得出以下结论:(1)从长时间尺度上来看,艾比湖流域博河和精河两条河流的年径流量均呈增加的趋势;从短的时间尺度上来看,流域内两条河流的径流量又表现出一定的波动性。(2)艾比湖流域河流的年径流均存在明显的周期性。(3)在20～25年的时间尺度上,两条河流均经历了一个丰枯交替;在10～20年的周期尺度上,博河和精河径流量经历了多次丰枯交替;在10年以下的周期尺度上,两条河流的周期性都比较复杂。(4)博河和精河年径流量变化趋势比较显著,两条河流均在1998年发生了一次由少到多的转折突变。

As a demonstration from the two rivers（Boertala River and Jinghe River） of the Ebinur Lake basin,the paper checked the periodic characteristics,abrupt change and change trend of annual runoff processes from 1961 to 2008 by using the accumulative anomaly,moving t test and the wavelet analysis method.The main conclusions are as follows：（1） From the loner time scale,the annual runoff of Boertala River and Jinghe River in the Ebinur Lake basin is increasing.From the shorter time scale,the annual runoff of Boertala River and Jinghe River in the Ebinur Lake basin is fluctuating.（2） The two rivers in the Ebinur Lake basin have the salience change of periodic.（3）In the time scale of 20～25,the two rivers have suffered an alternation.In the time scale of 10～20,the runoff has many alternations.In the time scale of 0～10,the periodic characteristics of the two rivers is complex.（4）The change trend of annual runoff in Boertala River and Jinghe River is salience.The annual runoff of the two rivers had changed from dry season to flood season in 1998.