摘要
分析了影响石油产量的因素,得出原油的年产量是个受不同未知因素影响的小样本贫信息系统,在此基础上运用不同的预测方法对新疆的历年原油产量做了不同的分析预测。鉴于石油年产量系统的不确定性和灰性,文章以灰色理论为主,建立了几种不同的分析预测模型,对新疆原油产量进行了组合预测。组合权系数的确定中所采用的方式,作者采用了灰色关联度法来确定不同手段得到的石油原产量在组合后的权重。实例结果分析表明,预测的精度很高,达到了预期的效果,比运用单一模型得到的效果更能令人满意,是一种切实可行的预测原油产量方法。
The factors which affect oil output are analyzed in the paper.It is derived that the annual output is a small sample poor information system affected by different unknown factors.Different prediction methods are used to analyze the crude output in the past years in Xinjiang.In view of uncertainty and gray charcteristic of the system,several models are established to predict the crude output of Xinjiang.The author uses grey correclation degree to determine the weight coefficient with combination models.The result shows that the precision is very high.It has achieved prospective effect and it is a practicable method for crude output prediction.
出处
《石油工业计算机应用》
2010年第4期3-6,68,共4页
Computer Applications Of Petroleum
关键词
原油产量
灰色理论
组合预测
crude output
grey theory
combination prediction
