资本流动突然中断的影响因素分析

Analysis of Factors Affecting the Sudden Stop of Global Capital Flow

采用1978—2007年共90个国家数据,分别建立Logit和Probit模型,对影响资本流动突然大幅度减少的因素进行分析。结果发现:经常账户/GDP的变化量极其显著地影响着SS的发生,汇率的变化率仅对所设定的SS的其中一个指标显著。

This paper sets up the modules of Logit and Probit on the data of 90 countries from 1978 to 2007 in order to analyze the factors underlying the Sudden Stop （SS） of global capital flow. The result shows that current account/ GDP has extremely significant influence on SS,while the changing rate of foreign exchange rate is obviously against only one of the set indexes of SS.