模糊故障树分析法在深孔镀铬控制系统中的应用

Application of Fuzzy Fault Tree in Deep-hole Chrome-plated Control System

针对深孔镀铬控制系统中对系统故障缺乏有效的分析解决手段,提出了模糊故障树分析法。通过分析影响系统可靠性的主要原因,建立了深孔镀铬控制系统可靠性的故障树模型。专家组对各个底事件进行评估,用格鲁布斯法对专家的评价数据进行检验,剔除离群值,并采用比较赋值法对离群值进行有效还原,以此得到专家的有效评价。采用模糊集合理论,对系统失效的底事件进行概率确定,通过对故障树进行定量的分析,得出顶事件发生的概率以及底事件的重要度参数。实践证明此方法具有有效性和正确性。

In allusion to the lack of effective analysis and solution for system failure in deep-hole chrome-plated control system,a method used fuzzy fault tree was introduced.By analyzing the main causes which affect the system reliability,a fault tree model of the system reliability was establishment.After the assessment of experts for the base events,evaluation data given by experts was tested according to Grubbs Law and outlier was excluded.Comparative valuation method was also adopted to effectively restore outlier.In this way,the effective assessment of experts was obtained.The probability of base events which belong to system failure was determined by using the theory of fuzzy set.The probability of the occurrence of top event and the important parameters of base event were acquired through quantitative analysis to the fault tree.Practice proves that this method is both valid and correct.