企业负债水平的亲周期性及经济逆转之必然——经济上行期时机选择理论的应用与结果

Pro-cyclical Nature of Corporation Debt Level and the Inevitable Economic Downturn

从市场时机选择理论出发,以上市企业负债水平为研究对象,用时间序列数据从盈利能力、行业特征、亲周期性等角度分析经济(周期)上升阶段上市企业的负债水平特征,发现我国上市企业总体资产账面值负债水平有明显的亲周期性,形成了经济下行的内在隐患。为此,把握微观经济主体行为与宏观经济运行的内在联系仍是当前需要解决的重要课题。

Setting off from economic go-up period,this article analyses the debt level of listed company through time series data from the perspective of profitability,enterprise scale,industry characteristics,pro-cyclicity.It is found that the listed companies in China have strong pro-cyclical tendency in their book liability of total assets,which may become a hidden problem for the down-turn of the economy.Therefore,it is an urgent task to grasp the internal linkage between the behaviors of microeconomic agents and the macroeconomic operation.