海南省农业部门能源消耗与农业生产总值的实证分析

An Empirical Study on the Relation between Agricultural Energy Consumption and Gross Output Value of Agriculture in Hainan

利用自回归模型、脉冲响应函数、预测方差分解和格兰杰因果关系对海南省1988～2008年农业能源消耗与农业生产总值之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明:农业能源消耗与农业生产总值变量序列之间存在高度线形关系,农业总产值对农业能源消耗具有明显的持续效应,但是增加能源消耗量,对农业总产值的影响不大,采取节约能源的政策并不会对海南省农业造成较大的冲击。

The relationship between agricultural energy consumption and gross output value of agriculture over the period 1988-2008 in Hainan is analyzed using Vector Autoregressive Model, Impulse Response Function, Variance Decomposition and Granger causality relation. The results show that there is a linear relation between the energy consumption and gross output value of agriculture. The gross output value of agriculture has distinct persistent effects on agricultural energy consumption, but there is no distinct effect of increasing energy consumption on gross output value of agriculture, and there is no distinct impact of saving agricultural energy on agriculture in Hainan.