小组织环境下的远洋船员适航性仿真分析

Simulation Analysis on Crew's Seaworthiness in a Small Organization

远洋船员的行为可靠度直接影响到海上船舶的交通安全,认识和分析船员的适航性是控制船舶安全的重要途径。在提出船员适航度概念的基础上,建立其求解数学模型;基于电路受控源的理论,分别以公司安全管理激励、公司组织阻抗、船舶组织负阻抗及船员的航行阻抗为基本参数,建立小组织环境下的船员管理模型,界定船员原有行为品质保持一定值的条件下,对参数的变化值以5%迭代进行仿真,仿真结果表明组织负阻抗值达到一定的情况下,船员适航指数变化将趋于平缓,而船员的自身航行阻抗对其适航性指数影响较大。同时,有效加强航运公司的安全激励可以适当改变船员的适航性变化,延长船员的适航时间。

Ocean crew behavior reliability directly affects marine traffic safety,so finding out and analyzing the crew＇s seaworthiness is an important way to control ship security.This paper firstly proposes the concept of crew seaworthiness degree and establishes a calculation model for it.Then based on circuit controlled source theory,a crew management model in the small organization environment is established with company＇s safety management motivation,company＇s organization impedance,organization negative impedance and crew as the basic parameters respectively.Through keeping the crew＇s original behavior quality unchanged within a certain value,an iterative simulation was made by changing 5% of parameters value.The result shows if the negative impedance values of organization hits a threshold value,crew airworthiness index will come to being gentle gradually,and negative impedance values of crew has a bigger influence on crew＇s airworthiness.Meanwhile,effectively strengthening shipping company safety incentive can appropriately change crew＇s seaworthiness and extend seaworthiness time.