中国新凯恩斯主义菲利普斯曲线的经验研究

Empirical Research on New Keynesian Phillips Curve in China

本文构建了附加利率的新凯恩斯主义菲利普斯曲线模型,并运用广义矩估计的研究方法,运用中国1997-2008年的季度数据对所构建的模型进行了估计与检验。经验结果表明,利率作为通货膨胀的驱动因素在统计和经济意义上都具有显著性,并且较国外许多国家更明显;当期通货膨胀动态变化受通货膨胀惯性和预期的共同影响,而预期起主导作用;厂商的定价行为既有前瞻性,又有后顾性,但后顾性处于主导地位。

This paper constructs an interest rates augmented New Keynesian Phillips curve model and uses GMM methods to estimate and test the model with quarterly data during 1997 to 2008 in China's Mainland.Empirical results show that the interest rate is statistically significant and qualitatively important as one of inflation drivers and the effect is obviously more than many other foreign countries;current inflation dynamics is affected by inflation inertia and expectation together and the latter is playing a leading role;pricing behavior of firms reflects both forward-looking and backward-looking and the latter is in dominant position.