我国各地区常住人口总量推算方法探讨

Discussion on Estimating Method of the Area Total Resident Population

本文以年度人口变动调查为基础,通过调查指标之间的关系、人口变动自身特征与抽查的情况,对我国各地区常住人口的推算方法进行了分析研究,并对各种评估推算方法的优缺点和适用条件进行了分析比较,根据各地区人口流动特点与人口基数,选择合适的评估推算方法,准确推算出各地常住人口数据。如何加强全国与各地数据衔接是今后推算评估数据工作的重点。

Based on the Annual Population Change Survey,through the relationships between survey indexes,characteristics of population changes and problems in the survey,this article analyzes the estimating method of the area total resident population in China,compare the advantages and disadvantages and application conditions of each method,then select the appropriate method according to migration features and population base.The future work will focus on how to strengthen the interface between the national data and area data.