人口结构研究——续马寅初《新人口论》

Analysis of Population Structure——Based on Ma Yinchu's Work New Theory of Population

受马寅初《新人口论》的启发,根据中国"计划生育"30多年的实践,构建多种"人口结构"模型。在构建"人口结构"模型的同时,引入时间坐标,从而获得"过渡期"人口结构的变化规律,这就为控制人口的有序增长,提供了科学依据。中国实施"一胎"指标30多年,一方面已经达到控制人口过度增长的目的,另一方面,"人口结构"正处于最佳状态,所以有必要将"一胎"指标适时调整为"两胎",以防止生育率的锐减和"老龄化"的激增。

Inspired by MaYinchu＇s work New Theory of Population and according to China＇s 30-year practice of ＇family planning＇,the paper constructed various ＇population structure＇ patterns.Meanwhile the time coordinates were introduced to obtain the law of changes of population structure in ＂transitional period＂ to provide scientific basis for the controlled growth of population.China＇s ＂one child＂ policy which has been in force for more than 30 years has achieved the target of controlling the over-growth of population on the one hand,on the other hand,as China＇s ＂population structure＂ is presently in an appropriate state,there is a necessity of changing the ＂one child＂ policy to ＂two children＂ policy to prevent the sharp drop of birth rate and the aging of population.