基于AC模型的景气信号和景气指数组合预警

The Combining Early-warning of Booming Signals and Indicators Based on AC Model

以往预警未来经济运行状态大都基于信号或景气指数的单预警方法,而论文从预测综合指数角度出发,以综合指数为因变量,以预警指标和一致及先行合成指数为自变量,采用不需要对自变量预测的AC模型,将信号预警和景气指数预警结合做组合预警,预警未来宏观经济运行情况,取得了较好的效果。

In the past,the prediction of economic early-warning signals was primarily based on signals or booming indicators.However,this paper starts from the comprehensive indicators,and adopts the AC model,which does not require independent variables.Combining warning of signals and booming indicators to forecast the future macroeconomic performance takes good effect.