乌拉特前旗耕地变化的驱动力研究及预测

Driving Forces of Cultivated Land Change in Wulate County: Investigation and Prediction

根据乌拉特前旗1957—2006年的统计资料,分析了耕地变化特征及现状,发现该区可开发利用的耕地已经用尽,人地矛盾形势严峻。利用主成分分析方法对乌拉特前旗1957—2006年耕地动态变化的社会驱动力进行了分析,结果表明,人口增长、经济发展和农耕业现代化水平是影响耕地变化的2个主要驱动因子。用GM(1,1)模型对未来25a的耕地和人口进行了预测,结果得出,该区1957—2006年期间人口持续增加,耕地面积减少,人地矛盾加剧。

Based on the historical documents of Wulate County from 1957 to 2006,we analyzed the features and status of the cultivated land,and found that almost no more arable land could be found in the area and the conflict between man and land had been increasingly apparent.Principal component analysis was conducted to identify social economic factors influencing cultivated land changes.The results show that the growth of population along with economic development,and the modernization level of cultivation are the two major driving forces.Furthermore,the GM（1,1） model was applied to predict cultivated land area and gross population of Wulate County in 2010,2015 and 2020,respectively.The prediction indicates a continuously increasing population companying by a continuously reducing area of cultivated land,implying a more severe conflict between man and land.The findings could provide scientific bases for protecting and urging sustainable usage of cultivated land in this region.