灾变理论在油井停产预测中的应用

The application of catastrophic theory in the prediction of production well shut in.

由于油井的停产具有很大的随机性 ,而目前对油井的停产基本没有预测手段 ,针对这一现象 ,以实际生产过程中的停产井为依据 ,利用GM( 1 ,1 )灰色预测理论对油田的停产井进行分析预测。该理论是通过选取“阈值”对原始停产井数的数据进行处理 ,形成新的数据列 ,继续寻找数据间的规律。这样就把对停产井数的预测转化为对“停产”这一灾变出现时刻的预测 ,从而做到提前预报 ,并能及时采取相应的补救措施 ,减少工作中的盲目性 ,掌握生产主动权 ,以指导油田的高效开发。利用该方法模拟结果与实际情况比较吻合。表2参 2 (刘红新摘 )

Well shut in in a developed oil field is an event with high randomness, and there is no way to predict the well shut in in an oil field currently. It is suggested that by applying GM(1,1) grey theory to analyze and predict the well shut in in an oil field on the basis of actual data shut in well in production process. By choosing the original number of shut in wells as the threshold data to form a new number series and to find out the regularities of number of shut in wells successively. Thus the prediction of number of shut in wells is changed to the prediction of the time when the catastrophe occurs. A prediction of well shut is thus obtained and remedial jobs can be taken to reduce the blindness in production work to guide the development of oil field efficiently. Simulated result has been compared with actual data rather well.