外商直接投资与中国省域经济增长动态关系研究——基于1988～2008年省际面板数据的实证分析

A Study of Dynamic Interaction between FDI and Provincial Economic Development in China:Empirical Analysis Based on 1988-2008 Provincial Data

国务院2010年"9号文"的公布表明我国已经开始逐步调整引进外资的政策,围绕这一文件政府、学界和外企都有各自不同的意见。本文以1988～2008年中国省际面板数据为基础,构建FDI率和经济增长率的面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,得出了以下结论:第一,从整体上看,中国经济的高增长率对外资有显著的吸引作用,外资对经济增长的正向促进作用并不显著。第二,1997年前后,中国经济增长率与FDI率之间的动态关系发生了结构性转变。第三,从区域上看,东部和中部省份的经济增长率与FDI率的动态关系较紧密,二者在西部省份的关系不显著。最后,FDI率目前在中国将长期稳定,2010年国务院9号文的出台不会给中国的FDI趋势造成显著的影响,也不会进而影响到经济增长率。

The announcement of State Council Document No. 9 indicates that China has begun to gradually adjust the policy to attract foreign investment. Government officials, scholars and foreign enterprises have different views to this document. This paper uses the panel VAR model to analyze the Chinese provincial data 1988 -2008. From the empirical results, this paper has four conclusions. First, viewed as a whole, the high economic growth rates of China significantly attracted the FDI, but the positive impacts from FDI on our economic growth were not significant. Second, the dynamic relationship between Chinese economic growth rate and FDI had structural changes in 1997. Third, the relationships in China＇s central and eastern region were more significant than in western region. Last but not less important, the FDI ratio is stable in China at present, and the announcement of State Council Document No. 9 will not have the negative impacts on the FDI and Chinese economic growth rate.