logistic模型中饱和值确定方法的研究

Research on the Ascertainment Method of Parameter Saturated Value in Logistic Model

logistic模型是一种重要的非线性预测模型,但如何确定饱和值L一直未得到很好解决.在学习以往方法的基础上,提出了一种新方法,即利用SPSS软件对logistic模型进行L值的选优计算,以模型计算值与样本值的标准离差是否趋于稳定作为值选取的标准,并以郑州市建成区非农人口的预测为例,说明了该方法在人口预测logistic模型中的具体应用.

Logistic model was the important non-linear model of time series forecasting.But how to ascertain the parameter saturated value of logistic model had been not well solved till now.A kind of new method was put forward on the base of the former methods.Some Logistic models were primarily made up with different parameter by SPSS,then whether the standard deviation between the forecast value with the real value became steady or not was the criteria of ascertaining the parameter finally.Prediction of nonagricultural population of built-up area in Zhengzhou city was taken as an example.It explained application value of this method.