基于信息熵的舰船装备建造费组合预测研究

Research on the optimal combination forecasting of warship equipment construction cost based on information entropy

舰船装备建造费的预测方法多种多样,不同的方法体现出不同的特点。针对常用的几种费用预测方法,充分利用不同方法的特点和提供的信息,提出基于信息熵的最优组合预测模型。在建立预测方法评价指标集的基础上,利用信息熵确定了各种方法在组合预测模型中的权重。该方法能处理预测中的不确定性因素,同时综合考虑了各种方法的特点以及预测过程中预测人员主观因素的影响,较为符合舰船装备建造费预测的实际情况。实际应用表明该方法可行,具有实用价值。

The forecasting method of warship equipment construction cost is various.The different methods can reflect the different characteristics.The features and information of several common methods were made full use of and the optimal combination forecasting model was put forward based on the information entropy.On the basis of the establishing evaluation index of the forecasting method,the information entropy was used to determine the weights in the optimal combination forecasting model.The method can deal with the uncertainties in the forecasting,and comprehensively take into account the characteristics of various methods and the subjective factors of the forecaster in the course of forecasting,which accords with the actual situation of warchip equipment cost forecasting.The practical application shows that the method is feasible and has the practical value.