南水北调中线工程运行风险分析

Risk analysis on operation of Mid-route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

将南水北调中线工程分解为交叉建筑物、输水干渠工程、穿黄穿漳工程、控制物等四大系统,根据各系统运行不同特点和破坏机理,采用相应的风险分析方法,建立了各系统工程运行风险因子识别体系和评价结构模型。通过对中线工程运行风险定性定量计算,实现了工程各系统运行风险等级划分。进而根据风险分析结果给出相应的降低风险的控制措施和对策,为南水北调中线工程安全运行管理提供有益参考。

The Mid-route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project is divided into four subsystems; i.e. crossing constructions, water conveyance channels, the Yellow River and Zhanghe River Crossing works and control projects, and then the risk factor identification system and the assessment structure model are established for the operations of all the subsystems with the relevant risk analysis methods based on various characteristics and failure mechanisms of their operations. Through the qualitative and quantitative calculations on the operation of the Mid-route Project, the risk grade classification for all the subsystems is realized. Furthermore, not only the relevant control methods and countermeasures for lowering the related risks are given on the basis of the risk analysis results, but some beneficial references are also provided for the safe operation and management of the project concerned.