发电设备寿命周期费用影响因素的敏感性分析

Research on Sensitivity of LCC Factors of Power Generation Equipment

阐述了发电设备全寿命周期费用(Life Cycle Cost,LCC)的基本理论及计算方法,针对发电设备LCC的影响因素之间存在的客观联系,假定因素之间相互独立,对其中某2个因素的变动幅度进行了一定的修正,使之更贴近实际。以某2×600 MW火电机组为例,选取若干影响因素,求得其全寿命周期费用净现值。对目标净现值进行单因素和多因素敏感性分析,以寻找目标值与影响因素之间所存在的内在联系,为设备投资以及后期优化管理提供决策依据。

This paper elaborates the basic theory and calculation method for life cycle cost （LCC） of power generation equipment. According to the intrinsic link among the various factors of LCC, a revision is made for the variation margin of the two main factors by assuming the mutual independence of various factors, which makes the analysis more realistic. Taking a 2 x 600 MW thermal power plant for example, several influence factors are selected to calculate the net present value of LCC. Single- and multi-factor sensitivity analysis is conducted on the target net present value so as to find out the internal relations between the target value and the influence factors and to provide a basis for decision-making for the equipment investment and optimization management.