浅析中国外汇储备增长对物价变动的影响

An Analysis of the Influence of China's Foreign Exchange Reserves Growth on the Price Changes

外汇储备对于一个开放经济体而言至关重要,是融通国际收支赤字、干预外汇市场维持本币汇率稳定、举借和偿还外债的保证等。但持有外汇储备是有一定的代价的,储备增长过快会带来通胀压力,使本币产生升值压力,使中央银行货币政策的自主权受到限制,对产业结构的调整产生不利影响。本文采用Engel-Granger方法,对我国外汇储备持续增长对通货膨胀货方面的影响进行分析,并通过研究结果给出了一些相关的政策建议。

Foreign exchange reserves are very important to an open economy system.They can balance the deficit,intervene the currency markets,maintain the stability of their own exchange rate,as well as raise and repay the debt.But holding foreign exchange reserves has certain costs.The overgrowth of foreign exchange reserves will bring inflation pressure,make the domestic currency has the pressure of appreciation,restrict the autonomous right of the Central Bank＇s monetary policy and do harm to the adjustment of industrial structure.This paper adopts Engel-Granger method to analyze the effects of the increasing growth of our foreign exchange reserves to the inflation and puts forward several relevant policy recommendations.