基于非对称理性的ITIO动态演化分析

Evolutionary ITIO Analysis Based on Asymmetric Rationality

本文根据一对多配送系统ITIO问题的特点,构建了配送中心和零售商双方理性不对称条件下的退化收益矩阵,得出复制动态方程,求出复制动态演化稳定策略(ESS),并分析了各参数对ESS的影响。研究结果表明,有限理性的零售商最终会演化成采用联合优化策略还是不采用联合优化策略,取决于完全理性的配送中心是否选择联合以及零售商分到的联合优化利润份额大小。当零售商分到的联合优化利润份额大于其单独优化利润占联合优化总利润的比例时,所有零售商最终都会采取联合优化策略;当零售商分到的联合优化利润份额小于其单独优化利润占联合优化总利润的比例时,所有零售商最终都会采取不联合优化策略。这意味着不完全信息条件下有限理性零售商的ESS与完全信息条件下完全理性的零售商选择是一致的。通过对运输库存各参数对ITIO双方演化稳定策略的影响可以知道,单独优化时候的库存安全因子、零售商与配送中心的距离、运输启动成本越大,零售商最终越倾向采取联合优化策略。

Managing inventory and transportation costs are core supply chain management issues because they account for the majority of operational costs of a supply chain.Supply chain managers often need to make a trade-off between inventory and transportation costs.The reduction of inventory cost often comes at the increase of transportation costs and vice versa.Such a trade-off decision makes it difficult for supply chain partners to optimize the overall decision for the entire supply chain.The constant struggle between the local optimization and overall optimization of supply chains often causes the increase of supply chain costs and subsequent decline in competitive strength.Meeting the diverse needs of consumers on time is becoming more difficult due to the lack of effective coordination and cooperation among supply chain partners.These problems can lead to the loss of market opportunities and the decline of a supply chain＇s overall competitiveness.Transportation and inventory problems have been studied separately.Current research lacks integrative studies analyzing these problems as a whole and looking for synergic solutions to both problems.Degenerative earning matrices under asymmetric rationality are developed according to the characteristics of inventory-transportation integrated optimization（ITIO） problems.These matrices are a one-to-many distribution system that can gain replicator dynamic equations of two sides and solve ESS problems.First,we propose assumptions for our proposed model,and analyze the profit functions of distribution center and retailer based strategies on transportation and inventory costs.An optimal solution and a profit function of distribution center and retailer strategies are proposed to achieve individual optimization for inventory and transportation.Second,the optimal solution and profit function are revised to achieve cost optimization for inventory-transportation optimization.Third,we use the dynamic evolution analytical framework under bounded rationality to solve the replicator dynamics equations for ITIO.An analysis is conducted to determine the effect of profit sharing on operational strategies and evolutionary stable strategy（ESS） for both distribution centers and retailers.Fourth,in order to find parameters＇ positive,negative and uncertain correlations with ESS,we analyze transportation and inventory parameters＇ effects on evolutionary stability strategy.Fifth,numerical examples are provided to verify main conclusions of our proposed model.Sixth,significance,limitations and future research directions are discussed for supply chain managers adopting equilibrium strategies.Analysis results show that a retailer＇s strategies depend on the selection of a distribution center and the profit share of retailers in ITIO.When the profit share in ITIO is larger than the profit share of individual optimization,all retailers will eventually adopt ITIO strategy.ITIO strategy will not be adopted if the profit share in ITIO is smaller than the profit of individual optimization.These findings indicate that retailers with incomplete or perfect information will make the same decision because they are bounded with limited rationality.Retailers are more encouraged to adopt ITIO strategy when the following conditions are met： larger inventory safety factor of individual optimization,longer distance between retailer and distribution center,and higher start-up transportation costs.