人民币升值对产业结构变动影响的实证分析

An Empiricial Study on the Influence of RMB's Appreciation on the Change of China's Industrial Structure

在开放的经济体系下,从三大产业的国民收入恒等式来构建一国汇率对于该国产业结构影响的模型。利用三大产业部门的贸易收支状况和各自的外商直接投资这两个要素来分析汇率的变动对于三大产业部门的影响。实证结果表明:人民币实际有效汇率的升值将对于我国三大产业产值的增长速度起到不同程度的抑制作用;但是人民币的升值一方面对于劳动密集型部门的发展制造压力,这将有利于资源的重新配置。另一方面将对成本要素型的外商直接投资产生负面影响,这有利于有效地调整外商直接投资的资金流向和配置方式,从而促进我国产业结构的优化升级。

Under the assumption of opening economy,a model is developed which analyzes how the exchange rate influence the industrial structure by employing the method of national income accounts indentity.The empirial result shows the raise of RMB real effective exchange rate will reduce the growth rate of the three major industries of the China＇s economy in different levels.However,the appreciation of RMB will exert pressure on the labor intensive industry,which is beneficial to the resources assignation,meanwhile the appreciation is useful to adjust the direction and allocation mode of capital flows by decreasing the amount of cost-oriented FDI.Thus,it will optimize the industrial structure.