我国房地产市场需求预测模型研究

A Study on Demand Prediction Model of Real Estates Market in China

通过对影响我国房地产市场需求的各种经济、非经济因素进行分析,建立统计预测模型。并以西安市为例,首先应用SPSS进行各因素的相关分析,完成自变量的筛选;其次通过回归分析对选定的自变量(年人均可支配收入、城镇储蓄存款、年末市区总人口)建立三元一次需求预测模型;最后运用一元线性回归完成各自变量值的预测,结果得出未来五年西安市房地产需求量会上升,并以此映射未来一段时期我国房地产市场的需求量也会有所增加。

Through the analysis of the various economic factone and the non -economic factors which influence the demand of the real estate market in China to establish the statistics forecasting model. And set Xi＇ an as an example. Firstly do the related analysis between the factors through SPSS to complete the screening of the independent variables. Secondly use the regression analysis to establish the ternary once equation for the demand fo^cesting model with the selected independent variables （annual per capita disposable income, town savings account, urban population at the end of each year）. Finally use the linear regression to complete the predictive values for each variable, and draw the predictive value of the real estate demand in Xi＇ an in the future five years will increase, and this has reflected that the demand of the real estate market in China will also increase in the future.