粮食进口对我国CPI的影响分析

Analysis Impact of Grain Import on Chinese CPI

以粮食为基础的食品占我国CPI权重的32.79%。随着我国粮食进口的快速增长,粮食进口对CPI的影响显著,主要表现在四个方面:粮食进口直接影响CPI指数;粮食进口通过产业链条影响下游企业成本进而影响CPI;粮食进口通过示范、替代和心理预期对CPI产生影响;外资通过粮食进口控制重要粮食品种进而影响CPI。粮价为百价之基,因此,必须优化我国粮食进口格局,努力避免外资对我国主要粮食品种的控制,在保证粮食安全的前提下,减轻国际粮价波动对我国CPI的负面影响。

The grain-based food accounts for 32.79% in Consumer Price Index （CPI）. With the rapid growth of imports, grain imports have a significant impact on the CPI. The mechanism is mainly in four aspects： the direct impact of food imports on the CPI index; food imports by the supply chain affect the business costs of downstream, then impact the CPI; food imports through demonstration effect, substitution effect, and psychological expectations impact on the CPI; foreign capital control by major grain varieties of food imports, thereby affecting the CPI. Grain price is the base price. Therefore, we must optimize the pattern of China＇s grain imports and try to avoid the control of key grain varieties by foreign capital. In the premise of ensuring grain security, reduce the negative impact of international grain price＇s fluctuation on the CPI.