模糊评判法在埋地管道第三方破坏评价中的应用

The Application of Fuzzy Assessment Technique in the Assessment of the Third-party Damage of Buried Pipelines

针对当前城市埋地管线失效主要原因是第三方破坏的问题,运用模糊评判法对城市埋地管道进行第三方破坏风险评价。建立了第三方破坏评价指标体系,用"九标度法"建立两两判断矩阵,用"方根法"求出评价指标的权重,采用专家评分法建立模糊评判矩阵,再由模糊评判原理得出埋地管道第三方破坏可能性等级。该方法运用于工程实例,得到埋地管道第三方破坏可能性等级,并提出降低埋地管道第三方破坏的措施。结果表明:用该方法对埋地管道第三方破坏风险评价的结果与实际相符,能够为城市燃气管道安全管理提供依据。

According to the fact that the third-party damage is the main reason for the failure of urban buried pipelines,the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method is suggested to assess the third-party damage of the buried pipelines.The index system of the third-party damage assessment is established,the judging matrix is established by the ＂nine scales＂ method,the weight of the assessment index is calculated by the method of ＂addition and multiplication＂,the fuzzy assessment matrix is established by the expert evaluation method,the probability grade of the third-party damage of buried pipelines is obtained by fuzzy evaluation principles.The model is used in the actual examples,the probability grade of the third-party damage of buried pipelines is obtained,and the measures to reduce the damage are suggested.The example proves that by using the suggested method the risk assessment results for the third-party damage of urban buried piplines are reliable,which provide useful reference for the safety management of the urban gas pipelines.