中国省区水平肺癌死亡率估计方法研究

Estimates of Lung Cancer Mortality at the Province Level in China

背景与目的目前我国肿瘤登记报告系统不健全,缺乏各省肿瘤流行的基础数据。本文利用我国现有恶性肿瘤死亡资料建立肺癌死亡率统计模型,对2008年我国31个省、自治区、直辖市的肺癌死亡率和死亡人数进行估计。方法依据各省市区死亡资料的人口覆盖范围和准确性,建立拟合模型,即直接利用资料、利用历史和现况资料建模推算死亡率变化趋势及利用构成比和恶性肿瘤合计死亡率资料推算部位别死亡率。结果 2008年我国肺癌死亡病例数为493,348人,其中男性为338,346人,女性为155,002人。按世界人口标化率计,男性和女性肺癌死亡率最高的省份均为吉林(男性52.29/10万,女性24.68/10万),死亡率最低的省份男性为天津(24.12/10万),女性为重庆(8.72/10万)。结论研究建立了我国省区水平的肺癌死亡率估计模型,对全国31个省市区肺癌死亡率进行了估计,这些数据将对掌握各地肺癌流行情况提供依据,也为各省区估计其它恶性肿瘤的死亡率提供参考。

Background and objective At present, population-based cancer registries were not well established and epidemiologic data for cancer were limited at the province level in China. Using the available mortality data for cancer, estimation model of lung cancer was established to provide the mortality profile for the population in 31 provincial regions in China in 2008. Methods Based on the population coverage and accuracy of the available mortality for provinces, the methods used to produce mortality estimates fall into 1 of the 3 categories： data were used directly; a model was developed to calculate annual change of mortality rate based on historical and current data; relative frequency data combining with mortality for all sites were used to estimate site-specific mortality. Results The total estimated deaths of lung cancer in 2008 were 493,348 （338,346 in males and 155,002 in females） in the whole country. The age-standardized rates were highest in Jilin （52.29 per 100,000 in males and 24.68 per 100,000 in females）, and the lowest rates were in Tianjin （24.12 per 100,000 in males） and Chongqing （8.72 per 100,000 in females）. Conclusion The models for lung cancer mortality at the province level have been established and the data will provide valuable scientific reference for describing the epidemic of lung cancer as well as estimating other site-specific cancer mortality in China.