中国县级教育水平与县人口迁移相互影响分析——基于2004年-2008年31省(市)县级面板数据的实证研究

Research on the Impact between Counties' Education and Migration in China——Empirical analysis on 31 provinces' (municipalities') panel data from 2004-2008

改革开放以来,在体制改革和经济转型的双重作用下,我国人口迁移规模不断增加。教育水平是影响迁移的一个非常重要的因素,而人口迁移对教育水平也会产生一定的作用。研究结果显示,县平均受教育年限与县人口的迁出、迁入均呈正相关。从全国来看,县教育水平提高1%,每百万约迁出6人;县人口迁出对县教育的负面影响小于迁入对教育的正面影响。这说明我国城镇化趋势在加强,同时反映出我国目前的人口迁移呈现一种波浪式递进的模式,即从农村到城镇再到城市的层级递进模式。

Since China＇s reformation and opening,the scale of migrate population migration in China has been expanding due to the dual function of system reform and economic transformation.Among the factors affecting the migration,education has an important influence,and the migration would have an impact on the local education.The results show that counties＇ education really plays a certain role on counties＇ migration,the average years of education in a town has a positive correlation both on inflow and outflow.Totally,there are about 6 people outflows per million populations in county as the average years of education increase by 1%.The positive impact of population inflow on education is greater than the negative impact of population outflow.This reflects not only the strengthening trend of China＇s urbanization,but also that China＇s current population migration is a wave-like progressive pattern,which is from rural areas to towns and then even to the developed cities.