基于对数平均迪氏指数法分解的工业二氧化碳强度驱动因素分析——以新疆为例

Using LMDI to Analyze the Driving Forces in Industrial CO_2 Intensity: Evidence for Xinjiang

新疆在推进工业化的进程中面临着巨大的节能减排压力。对与能耗相关的二氧化碳排放强度进行分解,研究其背后的驱动因素,能够为有的放矢地制订减排政策,发展低碳经济提供重要的实证依据。文章运用对数平均迪氏指数法方法,对新疆工业二氧化碳强度变动的分解结果表明:1994～2001年工业二氧化碳强度略有上升,其正向驱动因素是部门结构和行业结构,负向驱动因素是能耗强度和能耗结构;2002～2007年二氧化碳强度大幅增加的主要原因是能耗强度的上升,能耗结构、部门结构和行业结构虽有负向贡献但相对较小。此外,各工业行业的二氧化碳强度普遍呈上升趋势,主要资源型工业行业的规模扩张和技术滞后是新疆工业二氧化碳减排的重要制约因素。

Xinjiang is faced with increasing pressure to cut energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the process of industrialization. In order to make policies for gas emission reduction and low-carbon economy development, it is necessary to have a comprehensive understanding of what factors are driving the changes in CO2 intensity. Based on time series decomposition of the LMDI, industrial CO2 intensity changes in Xinjiang are decomposed into energy intensity, structure change （both sector and sub-sector level） and inter-fuel substitution. Over the year 1994-2001, structure shift increased industrial CO2 intensity and energy intensity and fuel shift decreased it, resulting in slight increase of industrial CO2 intensity. Nevertheless, energy intensity was the overwhelming contributor to the considerable increase of industrial CO2 intensity, whereas the counter-effect of structure change and fuel shift was relatively small in the period 2002-2007. In addition, the general trend of CO2 intensities in the industrial sub-sectors was upward, and expansion and technological stagnation of major resource-intensive industries was the important hindrance to CO2 reduction.