中国大肠埃希菌头孢他啶耐药趋势规律的IMMI推测应用研究

Study on the prediction of trend and regularity of the ceftazidime-resistance of E.coli in China using the IMMI method

目的：探讨MMI改良法（IMMI）对中国大肠埃希茵头孢他啶耐药性及其规律的推测的应用价值。方法：收集1996—2009年期间中国期刊全文数据库（CNKI）中涉及大肠埃希茵头孢他啶耐药性文献所报道数据，以X^2趋势检验进行趋势检验。以IMMI对耐药数据进行推测，以误差平方和（SSE）、误差标准差（RSE）、平均绝对误差（MAD）为主要衡量指标衡量IMMI推测效果及对比MMI、IMMI推测效果。结果：年均耐药数据经X^2趋势检验P〈0．01，耐药率呈逐渐增高的趋势。MMI中以H=0．01计算所得SSE、RSE、MAD值最小，对比IMMI（H=0．01）与MMI（M=2，K=2／3）的SSE、RSE、MAD值．IMMI的SSE、RSE、MAD值均小于MMI。结论：IMMI（H=0．01）推测效果优于MMI（M=2，K=2／3）。IMMI（H=0．01）提示大肠埃希菌头孢他啶耐药率主要受近期数据影响，远期数据对其耐药率变化的作用很小。MMI和IMMI均能较好地推测耐药性数据，尤以IMMI推测准确度高，模型参数设定对推测结果影响较大。

Objective To assess the application potential of the improved MMI（IMMI） to analyze the trend and regularity of eeftazidime-resistanee of E.coli in China. Methods The published data of drug-resistance of E.eoli to Ceftazidime was collected from the China national knowledge internet （CNKI） during the period from 1996 to 2009. The annual mean drug-resistance data was analyzed by the X^2 trend test and presumed by the IMMI method, IMMI presumed results and the eomparations of the presumed results from IMMI and MMI were mainly by sum of squares of error （SSE）, relative standard error （RSE） and mean absolute deviation （MAD） methods. Results The annual mean drug-resistance data analyzed by the X^2 trend test showed an escalating trend （P 〈 0.01 ）. The IMMI assay revealed that SSE, RSE and MAD value closed to the smallest level when H equaled to l.Data analysis between IMMI and MMI methods showed that, IMMI （H = 0.01） showed smallest value in the SSE, RSE and MAD value based-on IMMI method （H = 0.01） were smaller than those based-on MMI method （M = 2, K = 2/3）. Conclusion The prediction result base-on IMMI （H = 0.01） method is better than that based-on MMI （M = 2, K = 2/3） method. The IMMI （H = 0.01） analysis showed that the drug-resistance data of E.coli to Ceflazidime was influenced mainly by the short-term data and was influenced little by the long-term data. Both MMI and IMMI are available methods for prediction the Ceftazidime-resistanee of E. eoli, however, the IMMI method is better, and the results would be influenced obviously by different parameter setting in both IMMI and MMI methods.