全国伤寒、副伤寒发病的季节趋势模型研究

Study on Incidence of Typhoid Fever and Paratyphoid Fever with Seasonal Trend Model

目的分析全国2006-2010年伤寒、副伤寒报告病例数据,应用季节趋势模型预测2011年的发病例数。方法应用SPSS 15.0和Excel软件拟合2006-2010年全国伤寒、副伤寒逐月报告发病人数的季节趋势模型。结果全国伤寒、副伤寒的发病情况呈逐年下降趋势,应用逐月报告发病人数建立的季节趋势模型差异有统计学意义(F=11.688,P=0.001),应用模型预测2011年全国伤寒、副伤寒的发病人数为12543例,较上年减少2169例。结论季节趋势模型充分考虑了疾病流行的长期趋势和季节性流行特点,拟合近年全国伤寒、副伤寒发病数据效果较好,可利用模型进行短期预测。

Objective To explore the reported incidence data of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever in China from 2006 to 2010 by fitting a seasonal trend model,and to predict the incidence of the diseases in 2011 with the established model. Methods SPSS 15.0 and Excel XP were applied to fit the seasonal trend model on the incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever. Results The reported cases of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever declined annually during the period of 2006～2010,and the difference was statistically significant（F=11.688,P=0.001）.With the established seasonal trend model,the predictive cases of the diseases in 2011 would be 12,543,which are 2,169 less than those of 2010. Conclusions The long-term epidemic trend and seasonal epidemic character are all taken into account in the seasonal trend model.The fitted result of the established model is acceptable on the incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever,and the model can be applied to predict future short-term incidence.