汶泗流域大汶口文化考古遗址模型预测

Model Predictability of Archaeological Sites of the Dawenkou Culture in the Wensi River Basin

以山东省汶泗流域作为研究区,利用GIS技术,在现有考古资料和考古模型基础上,对研究区大汶口文化时期的遗址点进行分析,选择具有显著影响水平的环境参数,建立预测模型,得到了研究区遗址点分布概率图.结果表明,高程、坡度以及距水系的水平距离是影响古代人类活动的三个主要环境参数.在50~100 m的高程段内遗址点分布最多,占已发掘遗址数量的40.4%;坡度方面,遗址点主要分布在坡度小于2.5°以下的地区,遗址点数目占目前发掘遗址数量的86.2%;51.4%的遗址点出现在距离水系2000 m范围以内.随着三者数值的增加,遗址点数量减少.通过遗址点分布概率图发现,遗址出现概率最高的集中在35.5°N^36.25°N,116.5°E^117.25°E之间,再次是流域的西南部地区.

Taking the Wensi River Basin as a case study,the archaeological sites of Dawenkou Culture were analyzed based on the archaeological datum and models by using the Geographical Information System technology.The environmental parameters with the remarkable influence were selected,and then the predictive models were set up.The probability distribution of the sites was painted.Results showed that altitude,slope and the distance to the river were the mainly environmental parameters,which influenced the activities of the ancients largest.The number of the sites with altitude of 50~100 m were most,accounted for 40.4% of the total.As to the slope,the sites were mainly located in areas with slopes less than 2.5°,accounted for 86.2% of the total.51.4% of the sites were distributed at the areas with distance to the river less than 2000 m.While the altitude,slopes and the distance to the river increased,the numbers of the sites decreased.It was found in the figure of the probability distribution of the sites that the probabilities were largest in the areas between 35.5°N to 36.25°N,and between 116.5°E to 117.25°E,and then the probabilities of the southwest of the Wensi River Basin were larger.