相似任务经验和未来时间充裕感对计划失误的影响

Effects of Similar Task Experience and Time Slack on Planning Fallacy

本研究检验了人们一种潜在的认知倾向,即低估任务的完成时间。本研究分为2个实验,从两个角度来研究人们低估任务时间的行为。实验一从不同预测方式的角度,检验了任务的相似性和认知需求因素对任务时间估计的影响。实验二从未来时间知觉的角度,检验了未来时间充裕感对任务的完成时间预测的影响。结果表明:不同的时间预测方式都会引起对任务完成/持续时间的低估;任务的相似性会利于任务时间估计的精确性;认知需求因素会和任务的相似性产生交互作用,从而影响任务完成时间的估计;未来时间充裕感的程度也会影响人们对当前任务的预测。

People tend to underestimate the time they use in completing a task. Two experiments were designed to uncover the cognitive processes underlying this phenomenon. Experiment 1 tested whether previous experience of similar tasks and NFC （need for cognition） might influence subjects＂ estimation of task duration/completion time. Experiment 2 tested whether time slack influenced the estimation of task duration/ completing time. Results showed that participants un-derestimated the task duration/completion time both in future and past time estimating. When the task was more similar with previous experience, participants＂ predictions of task duration were more accurate. There was an interaction between NFC and task similarity in time estimation. Time slack also had effects on the estimation of present task duration.