大尺度水循环模拟系统不确定性研究进展

A Review on Uncertainty Analysis of Large-scale Hydrological Cycle Modeling System

水循环过程受众多自然因素和人为因素影响,决定了水循环系统的变化性和复杂性。水循环系统模型作为研究流域水文循环过程及演变规律的重要工具,必然也存在较大的不确定性,特别是对于大尺度陆—气耦合下的水循环模拟系统,其不确定性来源包括输入和参数不确定性、结构不确定性、方法不确定性以及初始和边界条件不确定性。本文在分析不确定性量化方法和传统水文模型不确定性研究基础上,重点评述当前大尺度水循环系统模拟的不确定性研究进展和存在的瓶颈问题,并介绍一种针对大型复杂动力系统的不确定性量化解决方案和工具系统—PSUADE,基于此讨论PSUADE在大尺度水循环模拟系统不确定性量化过程中的优势。

The uncertainties in hydrological modelling come from four major sources：uncertainties in input data and parameters,uncertainties in model structure,uncertainties in analysis method and the initial and boundary conditions.Much attention has been paid to the uncertainty issues in hydrological modelling due to their great effects on prediction,and also many methods are applied to uncertainty quantification in the hydrological model.In this paper,we reviewed the recent advances on the uncertainty analysis approaches in the large-scale complex hydrological model,such as,large-scale hydrological system coupled with the land-atmosphere model.And then the PSUADE and its uncertainty quantification method were introduced,which will be a useful tool and platform for integration research in uncertainty analysis of large complex hydrological models.