从气象灾害防御到气象灾害风险管理的管理方法转变

Change of management opinion from defense to risk management of meteorological disaster

讨论了气象灾害和气象灾害风险的重点研究对象。尝试性地将人类认识气象灾害的过程归纳为4个阶段:气象灾害的启蒙认识阶段、气象灾害的监测与预报阶段、气象灾害的减灾工程阶段和气象灾害的风险管理阶段。同时,引出了气象灾害和气象灾害风险的不同理念。以现在时刻为划分点,将过去已发生的灾害定义为气象灾害,将未来可能发生的灾害定义为气象灾害风险。最后建立了基于SWOT的远期气象灾害风险管理的分析方法,并提出了将人工影响天气作为气象灾害风险管理的气象工程手段的观点。

The objects of meteorological disaster and meteorological disaster risk were discussed.Based on the cognition process of human being to meteorological disaster,this process is divided into four stages,i.e.enlightenment,forecasting and monitoring,reducing disaster engineering and risk management.Meanwhile,opinions on the meteorological disasters and the meteorological disaster risk are introduced.The disaster already happened is defined as meteorological disaster,while the disaster that will happen in future is defined as meteorological disaster risk.Finally,the risk management method for long-dated meteorological disaster is set up based on SWOT method.At the same time,a new opinion is put up,namely,weather modification should be used as engineering measurement of meteorological disaster risk management.