气候变化适应行动实施框架——宁夏农业案例实践

Action framework for climate change adaptation:an agriculture case in Ningxia Hui nationality autonomous region

宁夏是我国生态脆弱区和贫困区之一,以宁夏为例开展农业适应行动实践具有一定的代表性和示范作用。根据气候变化适应行动实施框架,研究结果表明:宁夏未来气候干旱风险将增加,水资源短缺矛盾加剧,极端气候事件频率和强度加大。未来宁夏北部灌区农业应以发展节水灌溉和高效种植为主,中部以设施农业和牧业为主,南部以发展特色农业为主。气象部门和水利部门对适应技术的适应效果持乐观态度,农牧业部门和林业部门则态度谨慎。适应措施能否实施的首要条件是措施符合国家和地方的政策方针,其次是成本效益;在实施条件中,要求相对比较弱化的是公众对气候风险的认知程度以及措施的灵活调整性。在适应措施选择上,气象服务和种植结构调整成为首选的适应技术,而覆盖技术、节水技术由于更倾向于传统的技术范畴,虽然效果较好,但对其适应优先性选择存在影响。

Ningxia Hui nationality autonomous region is one of the ecological fragile and poor regions in China,so this region could be used as representative and model sample for adaptation demonstration of agriculture system in China.According to climate change adaptation action framework,drought risk and water resource shortage will increase in future.At the same time,frequency and intensity of extreme climate events will also strengthen.High efficient water-saving irrigation technology and high efficient planting patterns should be developed in the north,facility agriculture and husbandry in the middle and characteristic agriculture in the south of Ningxia Hui nationality autonomous region in future.People working in meteorology and water resource fields think that adaptation effect will be good,while people in agriculture and forestry fields think it should be considered carefully.The primary criterion for adaptation implementation is to meet with the local and state policies.The second is the cost-effectiveness.Public awareness to climate risk and flexibility of measures requirement are relatively weakened in the course of implementation.In general,meteorological services and planting structure adjustment are preferred adaptation measures.In spite of the traditional and regular technologies such as concrete mulching and water-saving are good,their applications face certain limitations for adaptation implementing in first-class choice.