柱形罐爆炸碎片抛射的Monte-Carlo分析

Monte-Carlo analysis of the projectile fragments from cylindrical tank boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion accident

在动力学分析的基础上,将二维体系内的碎片轨迹方程扩展到三维体系内,将风这一影响因素考虑在内。以墨西哥事故中水平圆柱储罐发生沸腾液体扩展为蒸气云爆炸(BLEVE)为例,利用Monte-Carlo法模拟出碎片的轨迹曲线,计算得到有风和无风情况下碎片抛射距离的概率分布,得到一般情况下风对碎片危害的影响较小。计算了无风情况下碎片碰撞目标容器的概率,得到碰撞概率随罐间距的增大而呈现严格的指数衰减趋势,通过此关系式可以计算出符合安全要求的罐间距。研究结果对于提高储罐的安全性、缓解和控制碎片产生的风险具有一定的指导意义。

The generation and flight of fragments are stochastic and can cause more severe hazards.Studying on the domino effect study caused by the fragments from explosion is hotspot and difficulty.Based on dynamic analysis,the present work extended the two-dimensional fragment trajectory equation into three-dimensional system,and took wind into account.The present analysis took a cylindrical tank in Mexico City with boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion as an example,and the trajectory of fragment was simulated by Monte-Carlo method.Seen from the probabilities of fragment ranges to be reached with/without wind,wind has less impact on the hazard caused by fragments.The impact probability of a fragment on a target with no wind was attained,impact probability with the tank showed the increase of distance between the strict exponential decay trend,and through this relationship,the tank spacing in compliance with safety requirements can be calculated.The paper provides a method which is of great significance for the risk assessment and control of fragments from the explosion of cylindrical tanks.