国际收支双顺差和中国经济波动

The Dual Surplus of International Payment and China's Economy Fluctuation

本文采用新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争一般均衡模型来分析我国国际双顺差的原因、性质和后果。分析结果表明,我国贸易顺差的直接原因是出口商品价格水平相对GDP价格水平的比率持续下降,而我国工资总额占GDP的比率持续下降是出口商品价格相对水平下降的主要原因,也是大量贸易顺差的根源所在;出口商品需求价格弹性和汇率也是影响出口商品价格相对水平的因素;大量的FDI进入是形成资本和贸易顺差的重要原因;在双顺差的背景下,人民币升值不是调节国际收支顺差的很好选择;贸易平衡对维持经济稳定增长很重要,贸易不平衡越大引起的经济波动越大。

This paper studies the dual surplus of international payment and China＇s economic fluctuation in a new Keynesian open economy model.The analysis indicates that the declining of ratio of export price level to GDP index price level causes the surplus of international trade.The declining of ratio of total wage to GDP is the reason of declining ratio of export price level to GDP index price level and resource of surplus of international trade.The elasticity of export price and exchange rate of RenMinBi are also the factors that influence the level of relative export price.The flow of FDI that seeks the trade surplus originating from cheap labor is the important factor of forming the dual surplus of international payment.Under the condition of dual surplus the appreciating of RenMinBi may not be a good choice.The trade surplus can bring out more fluctuation of economy.Because of the trend to equilibrium of economy,the surplus of trade is not sustainable.