云南2009年雨季T639、日本、德国3个数值模式的降水预报检验

PRECIPITATION FORECAST VERIFICATION OF T639,JAPAN AND GERMANY NUMERICAL MODELS IN YUNNAN 2009 RAINY SEASON

对云南2009年雨季T639、日本、德国3个数值模式的降水预报进行了检验与比较,发现3个模式的降水预报均有明显的特征。总体偏差分析表明T639模式降水预报明显偏多,德国模式明显偏少,日本模式预报稍偏多。降水分级检验表明小雨和中雨的TS评分日本模式最高,大雨和暴雨的TS评分T639模式最高。T639和日本模式在降水的落区预报上均为正相关,对降水落区预报有一定的指导意义。总体上,3个模式中日本模式预报较准确,T639次之,德国模式的各项检验指标均为最低。

By using T639,Japanese and Germanic numerical models＇ products,the precipitation forecasts have been verified and compared.It has been found that the three models＇precipitation forecasts have obvious characteristics.By deviation analysis,it has been found that the T639＇s forecast was obviously more,the Germanic forecast was obviously less,and the Japanese forecast was little more.The Japanese TS score in light rain and moderate rain was best;the T639＇s TS score in heavy rain and storm was best.The forecast drop zone of T639 and Japanese models had positive correlation with the Abstractors.The two models had guiding significance to rainfall areas forecast.Tn the three models,the Japan model was more accutate,the T639 followed.The inspections of the German model were lowest.