我国居民医疗保健消费需求变动对制药产业发展的影响分析

Analysis of the Effect of Demand Shocks to the Development of Pharmaceutical Industry in China

文章采用基于需求变化的动态调整模型,利用1985—2008年数据,分析我国城乡居民医疗保健消费需求变化对中成药和化学药品原药产业发展的影响。分析结果表明,转型时期制药产业的发展一定程度上受居民医疗保健需求变化的影响。城镇居民医疗保健消费需求增长对中成药无论短期影响还是长期影响均大于化学药品原药,农村居民的情况则相反,医疗保健消费需求对化学药品原药无论短期影响还是长期影响均大于中成药。

Through using model of dynamic adjustment on demand shocks, the paper examines how the urban and rural residents＇ health care expenditures affect the development of pharmaceutical industry in transitional period in China from 1985 to 2008. The results show that urban residents＇ health care expenditure exerts more influence on Chinese patent medicine than on chemical raw medicine both in short term and long term, with rural residents＇ condition as the contradiction.