城市化与潜在增长率：基于长期视角的增长效应评估被引量：9

Urbanization and the Potential Growth Rate: An Assessment of Growth Effects Based on the Long-term Perspective

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摘要从单个国家不同阶段的纵向来观察,城市化与经济增长之间的相关性强弱程度存在显著差异;横向跨国对比来看,不同国家城市化率与经济增长之间的关系也不存在统一的范式,城市化既可能是经济增长的结果,也可能是经济增长的动力。中国未来城市化的速度将不可避免地放缓,人口结构也将逐步跨越老龄化的时间窗口,这会对潜在的经济增长能力产生负面冲击;同时,中国分散型的城市化抑制了创新、规模经济和专业分工带来的增长效应;中国城市化进程表现出了较强的"中心偏向","中心—外围"式的城市化层级结构扩大了区域差距。 Urbanization can be a result of economic growth,it also could be the driving force of economic growth.In the future,the pace of urbanization in China will inevitably slow down,the population structure is changing gradually,this will potentially have a negative impact on economic growth capacity.At the same time,decentralized urbanization in China hampered innovation,economies of scale and specialization.Furthermore,the process of urbanization in China showed a strong 'center bias',which aggravates the regional gap.

作者巴曙松杨现领

机构地区国务院发展研究中心金融研究所华中科技大学经济学

出处《财贸经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2011年第3期96-101,137,共6页 Finance & Trade Economics

关键词城市化人口结构潜在经济增长公共政策 Urbanization,Population Structure,Potential Growth Rate

分类号 F290 [经济管理—国民经济]

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