国际碳排放权交易利益分配与出口规模研究——基于MACs的理论与实证分析

Research on Interest Distribution of International Carbon Emission Trading and Export Scales:Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on MACs

文章首先回顾了碳排放权交易相关研究文献,然后以边际减排曲线为分析工具,对国际碳排放权交易利益分配进行了理论分析,并以《京都议定书》规定的减排承诺为依据进行不同交易范围下各国收益分配的实证分析。通过构建两阶段模型,文章讨论了发展中国家未来承担不同减排义务情况下现阶段的最优出口规模及其影响因素,并提出"非附件B国家"在国际碳排放权交易中需加强合作以应对利益分配不公,中国需要针对13亿吨最优出口规模,根据影响因素的变化进行规模调整和制度创新,建立碳排放权交易制度的基础设施,引导企业自律性减排。

Firstly,this paper reviews the related literature on carbon emission trading.It theoretically analyzes interest distribution of international carbon emission trading by marginal emission curves and also makes an empirical study on the interest distribution under different trading ranges based on the emission reduction commitments of Kyoto Protocol.Secondly,it constructs a twostage model to discuss current optimal export scales of developing countries under different future burdens of emission reduction obligations and their determinants.Finally,it proposes that nonAnnex B countries should strengthen cooperation to cope with unfair interest distribution of international carbon emission trading.China needs to adjust the optimal export scale with 13 million tons to the changes in determinants,carry out institutional innovation,establish the infrastructure of carbon emission trading system,and guide enterprises＇ selfdiscipline emission reduction.