基于经济学角度的房地产泡沫分析及测度

The analysis and measurement of real estate bubble based on economics

针对现有测度指标不能反映房地产泡沫的经济学本质这一不足,基于经济学中的财富效应与强周期效应理论,采用理论分析与图示结合的方法,分析了房地产泡沫与消费需求的辩证关系,及其对相关产业乃至国民经济波动的强化作用,提出了新的测度指标。该角度的分析与测度更利于从房地产供需角度及对比全社会各产业的投资角度来认识和衡量泡沫水平。

Aiming at the problem that current measurement indexs can’t reflect the economics nature of real estate bubble,based on wealth effect and strong cycle effect,this study adopts graphic representation and theoretical analysis to analyze the dialectical relationship between real estate bubble and consumer demand,and its reinforcement of the fluctuation of related industries and national economy.New measurement indexs are proposed.This helps people get to know and measure the bubble from both the perspective of supply and demand of real estate,and the perspective of contrast among individual industry’s investment of the whole society.