弄另水电站厂房后边坡变形监测与变形预测

Deformation Monitoring and Deformation Prediction of Plant Back-Slope In Nongling Hydroelectric Station

弄另水电站厂房后边坡由于所处的不良地质环境和开挖、降雨等因素的影响,需要通过安全监测网对边坡的安全动态进行准确的分析和评价。利用监测点IN1、IN2的变形监测数据对边坡情况进行了分析,建立了边坡位移时间预报的非平稳时间序列分析模型,基于该模型预测边坡岩体变形趋势。预测结果表明,ARMA模型实时建模的分析方法能较好地反映边坡位移变形的动态变化规律,准确预报出边坡位移的发展趋势,该边坡在采取加固措施后变形已基本稳定。

As the plant back-slope in NongLing Hydroelectric Station is affected by the geological environment,excavation,rainfall and other factors,its security dynamics should be carried on accurate analysis and evaluation pass the safety monitoring network.The deformation monitoring data which is at monitoring points IN1 and IN2 is used on the slope analysis.Non-stationary time series analysis model is established for slope displacement time prediction,based on the model to predict the trend of the slope rock mass deformation.The prediction results show that ARMA model is reasonable in the predication of the development tendency of slope displacement and prediction of displacement is well coincident with the real situation.The slope has been basically stable after reinforcement measure taken.