一种新的飞行事故征候率监视与控制方法

A New Method for Monitoring and Controlling Flight Incident-rate

为了改进民用航空飞行安全的监控手段,探讨了一种飞行事故征候率的监视和控制方法。通过采用W检验法,对中国民航2008年各月飞行事故征候率统计数据进行正态分布拟合优度检验。结果表明:在10%的显著水平下,飞行事故征候率总体服从正态分布。假设正常情况下,飞行事故征候率超过警戒值的概率仅为0.1%,选择该概率为确定警戒值的标准。根据前一年12个月的飞行事故征候率统计数据和确定警戒值的标准,以子样均值作为母体均值估计量,子样无偏方差的平方根作为母体标准差的估计量,可计算出当年飞行事故征候率警戒值;此外,还提出了控制民用航空安全水平的准则。

In order to improve flight safe control of civil aviation,a new method for monitoring and controlling flight incident-rate is explored.The goodness-of-fit test for the normal distribution of statistic data of CAAC＇s monthly flight incident rate in year 2008 is performed with W test method.The test result shows that flight incident rate population complies with the normally distributed population at the 10% observed significance level.It is supposed that the probability of flight incident rate exceeding alert value is less than 0.1% in normal condition,and this probability（i.e.0.1%） is selected as critical probability for deciding flight incident rate alert value.According to this criterion and using the sample mean and standard deviation of monthly flight incident rate statistic data of 12 months last year as the mean and standard deviation of the normal population,the flight incident rate alert value of this year can be calculated.In addition,the criterion for monitoring and controlling civil aviation safety level is suggested.