关于地质灾害孕灾因子权重确定的探讨

A Discussion on the weights of the influence factors of geological hazards

地质灾害易发区划模型中,不同地区孕灾因子权重不同。因子权重的确定、求解权重的准确性将直接关系到区划结果的可靠度。本文根据地质灾害点在不同孕灾因子分区中的分布频率,推出不同孕灾因子对地质灾害发育的贡献率的相对大小。不同因子对地质灾害发育的贡献率实际上就是各因子在地质灾害易发模型中的权重,因此通过以上分析可得出不同孕灾因子的相对权重,再利用层次分析法(AHP法)得出孕灾因子的权重。通过统计分析得出各因子相对权重的方法弥补了层次分析法确定权重的人为随意性,提高了区划的准确度。

In the classification model of geological hazard,the factors of the geological disaster in different parts have different weights.The accuracy of the weight will directly relate to the reliability of zoning.According to the frequency distribution of the geological hazard in deferent regions,the relative size of the contribution of the different factors are derived.The contribution of the factors are in fact the weight of them in the model of geological disaster-prone.Based on the above analysis,the relative weights of the factors are obtained.Then the weight factors are calculated by AHP method.The method reduces the arbitrariness of human and improves the accuracy of division.