沥青公路网路面状况的宏观控制和预测——控制理论用于公路管理(Ⅰ)

Macroscopic Control and Prediction of the Pavement Condition of Asphalt Highway Networks——Applications of Cybernetics to Highway Management (Ⅰ)

本文利用控制理论的状态空间分析法建立了沥青公路网路面状况的宏观最优控制模型。这个模型是一个有9n个决策变量和9n+2个约束方程(n是决策期限内的年数)的线性规划。它表明,在决策期限内沥青公路网路面维修与改善所需的最小总费用是初始路况、各年要求的路况、各种备选处理措施的单价、路况转移概率、计划年数和每年采取的管理策略的函数。根据这个模型编制的计算机程序,可供省、地级公路管理机构用来确定其所管辖的整个沥青公路网的最优管理策略,使路况满足指定要求而总费用达到最小。文中列举了实际应用例。计算机程序供GW-0520CH微型计算机及其系列兼容机使用。

In this paper, a macroscopic control model for the pavement condition of asphalt highway networks is formulated with State Space Analysis of Cybernetics. The model, which is a Linear Programming with 9n variables and 9n+2 constraints (n=the number of planning years), shows that the minimum total cost of maintaining and rehabilitating the pavements of a asphalt highway network over planning years is a function of initial pavement condition, desired pavement condition in each year, unit costs of various treatment alternatives, transition probabilities for pavement condition, the number of planning years and the adopted optimal policies in each year. Based on the model, a computer program is supplied which can be used, by a provincial or prefectural authority of highways, to determine the optimal management policies for the pavements of the entire asphalt highway network under the administration of the authority, while minimizing total cost and keeping pavement condition at prescribed level. Practical examples are presented.