中国工业化中期的能源需求国际比较及其定量分析

International Comparison and Quantitative Analysis of China's Energy Demand in the Stage of Medium-term Industrialization

自20世纪90年代以来,我国经济经历了一个持续、高速增长阶段,从整个工业化进程角度如何看待这一经济现象,如何揭示经济高增长与能源需求间的规律性关系需要深入研究。文章以我国工业化道路和工业化所处的阶段为背景,通过借鉴日本、美国等发达国家在工业化中期阶段的能源消费经验;从定量角度具体分析了我国在该阶段经济增长与能源需求的对应关系,得出经济高增长对能源消费具有刚性需求这一规律性结论,并以此为基础提出今后我国的能源策略。

Since the 90s of the 20th century, the economy of China has experienced a sustained, rapid growth stage. An in-depth research, from the perspective of the overall process of industrialization, on how we view this economic phenomenon and how to reveal the regular relationship between the high economic growth and energy demand, is needed. Taking it as a background the route of China＇s industrialization and the stage where China is now, and taking it as references the energy consuming experience of the developed countries, such as Japan, the United States of America within their intermediate phases of industrialization, this article analyzes the corresponding relationship between economic growth and the energy demand of China within the same phase. Through the way of quantitative analysis, it achieves a regular conclusion that the high growth of economy causes a rigid demand of energy consumption, and on that basis, presents China＇s energy strategy and tactics in future.